Well, that was an interesting year to say the least. Although we still have a few days left, the nation can begin to exhale with an apt sigh after experiencing a year full of significant ups and downs. Many of us will remember 2016 for the death of Bowie, George Michael and Carrie Fisher, combined with the rise of Trump, rife Euroscepticism, Marine Le Pen, an Italian constitutional referendum, and of course, the annoying political portmanteau that is Brexit. The year in politics has been extremely volatile; it has left many of us perplexed as to what really happened and why…
What we have experienced is something I would like to term the surfacing of electorate disenchantment. Disenchantment and its sequitur, disengagement, are two D’s that reached the very top of the political waters; people have been disengaged and disaffected for far too long, and for far too long it has been ignored. What has come to be known as the Establishment has started to resemble a political corpus that a large portion of the population feel no tangible connection with. The frictions caused by political scandals, cover-ups, subterfuges, corruption and power abuse have all combined to create a general mood of pessimism and doubt concerning those that govern on our behalf (supposedly).
The rise in populism and the search for ‘politicians of the people’ have materialized as logical conclusions to years of struggle between a small political elite, and a people who have experienced strong feelings of seclusion from the political sphere. How has this come about and what are the effects? It goes without saying that the sentiment of being cut off from a governing body like Westminster carries serious consequences for the stability of a democracy. Interestingly, it is the very structure of democracy that has allowed such concepts as Trump and Brexit to become stark political realities for the world; the ‘voice of the people’ has finally spoken! In the case of Brexit, the delineation of a disenchanted electorate fits particularly well; with many citizens fed up of the way globalization and the relinquishing of sovereignty has threatened the values they hold close to heart, an out vote wasn’t hard to envisage. For many Brexiteers, an out vote was a powerful opportunity to stand up to politicians and restore national sovereignty to the country. Unfortunately, the vote put to the people was not reinforced with objective facts and outcomes concerning remain and leave votes; in other words, no one truly understood what result an out vote would bring. For the leavers, many of their votes can be regarded as emotional votes, influenced by pent-up disenchantment and frustration aimed at the current status quo. This is not to say that leave voters were less intelligent or rational than remain voters; it is merely to highlight the fact that, given the information deficit concerning the validity of the leave argument, voters were making their decision based on very few objectively ascertained outcomes, forecasts and predictions for a future outside of the EU.
It is obvious that the way politics works in the modern era is changing, and rapidly. A new era of expressive voting has emerged in 2016, and the people have made some semi-revolutionary decisions on elections and referendums. The failure of the Italian constitutional referendum to convince Italy’s people to alter the constitution demonstrated that a majority didn’t want the Prime Minister at the time – Matteo Renzi – to proceed in altering the constitution. In France, rising support for Marine Le Pen has reflected sentiments of the French people concerning the desire to uphold a nationalist agenda. Is this the modern behaviour of the ‘power of the people’? It certainly feels like we are moving towards what seems like a power parity between elite and electorate; in other words, the gap between politician and voter could be lessening. Of course, the phenomenon of Donald Trump being voted in as President-elect has been the biggest political shock of the year. A shock that perhaps reveals most clearly the feelings of disengagement among US citizens, and a desire to move executive power back into a nationalistic sphere. In fact, though they may be quite disparate in terms of political manifesto and background, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and Donald Trump both represent a shift in the position of political power from the hands of a ruling elite to ‘men of the people’ (though in Trump’s case this may be a tactical façade). Growing support for Nigel Farage might also be included in this shift. In any case, it is evident that a disengaged people have found symbolic remedies in nationalist forces; whether they will be satisfied with them is another question.
So, here we are on the cusp of 2017, and the political forecast is yet to be determined; we will most likely see further turbulence and turmoil as Trump takes office and Article 50 is finally triggered. As pessimistic as the outlook may at first appear, it is hard to deny that we are entering a very exciting period of political change. Let us keep an open mind as we emerge into the new year…